Showing posts with label GARCH. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GARCH. Show all posts

Sunday, 27 July 2014

Heteroscedasticity: Only downside being "Hard to spell"

As mentioned in my last post, volatility of stock returns vary over time (Heteroscedasticity) and they happen in a systematic way so as to ensure mean reversion. The concept is appealing well beyond the regular homoscedastic models which assume constant volatility. And so the best book I had that provided hands on model calibration experience was the elementary “Time Series Analysis by Cryer and Chan”.

Wiki says on the subject:

“The possible existence of heteroscedasticity is a major concern in the application of regression analysis, including the analysis of variance, because the presence of heteroscedasticity can invalidate statistical tests of significance that assume that the modeling errors are uncorrelated and normally distributed and that their variances do not vary with the effects being modeled.”